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Coronary artery disease & C. pneumoniaeThe serological evidence
[Lay reader: The body normally responds to the presence of infection by making specific antibodies to that infection as part of the protective immune response. Some antibodies (so-called IgG antibody for example) tend to persist for a long time after the infection has resolved. The presence of specific IgG antibody to an infection is therefore a valuable indication that that person has been infected, or at least exposed to infection, some time in the past. Other antibodies, such as IgA antibody, are not so persistent following resolution of an infection and may be a more valuable indicator of recent or current infection. Unfortunately the methods available for measuring antibody to C. pneumoniae and other Chlamydiales are imperfect [see: serology] causing difficulty in the interpretation of results]. To test the hypothesis that chronic C. pneumoniae infection is a cause of coronary artery disease, the presence of specific
IgG
In summary, there is general agreement that whereas cross sectional studies have suggested some sort of association, prospective studies have not [Siscovick et al., 2000]. It has been argued that the prospective studies were negative because serology was only tested at one time point several years before the development of disease. Therefore, controls may have developed chronic infection in the intervening years, so masking any association. Although ingenious, this seems an unlikely explanation. Firstly, annual infection rates in adults are low and that there is no convincing evidence that widespread epidemics occur in moderate latitudes. Secondly, prospective studies with relatively short follow up periods of 1.5 to 5 years [Nieto et al., 1999; Muhlestein et al., 2000; Ridker et al., 1999a] were just as likely to be negative as those with longer follow up. It is well known that negative studies are less likely to be published than positive ones. It is therefore vital that any radical departure in the treatment and prevention of coronary heart disease should be based on rigorously evaluated data. In reviewing the literature, one way of detecting such publication bias is to construct funnel plots [Egger et al., 1997]. These are plots of the studies’ effect estimates against sample size (or study precision). Generally, the precision in estimating the underlying association will increase as the sample size increases. Results from small studies will scatter widely at the bottom of the graph with the spread narrowing among larger studies. In the absence of bias, the plot resembles a symmetrical inverted funnel but otherwise, the plot will often be skewed and asymmetrical. The Figure below shows a funnel plot for 33 cross sectional serological studies of antibody to C. pneumoniae and coronary heart disease.
Fig 1. Funnel plot for 33 cross sectional studies investigating the association between coronary heart disease and IgG seropositivity for C. pneumoniae. Methodology of Egger et al., 1997. [Double click on thumb-nailed figure]. * The Estimates precision is the reciprocal of the standard error (the standard error can be calculated from the 95% confidence interval limits). Figure © Y. Wong, 2001.
Of these 33 studies, 17 found no significant association (although some of these 17 were reported as positive because apart from IgG, other markers of infection such as IgA were used). It can be seen that the plot is highly asymmetrical. In fact, it is almost half of a funnel plot, suggesting that the majority of negative studies have not been published [Egger et al., 1997]. More importantly the plot demonstrates that the studies with the greatest statistical precision (the larger studies towards the top of the vertical axis) show little effect (odds ratios close to 1). Problems with the serological evidenceSerology prompted the initial hypothesis that C. pneumoniae might be a cause of cornonary heart disease, but the evidence has not stood the test of time. Kalayoglu et al., 2002 have neatly summarised the problems associated with sero-epidemiological studies of the association of C. pneumoniae infection with coronary heart disease [and indeed with other chronic diseases].
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